Polls show a small gap between the front runners with National Front leader Marie Le Pen tied with François Fillon. A populist win would be a threat bigger than Brexit to the Euro and the EU. Frexit is a possibility along with dropping the Euro and moving to a “nouveau franc” to make exports competitive. National debt would convert to the new currency which would likely be a default. There is high anxiety about the election since polls were wrong about the US Presidential election and Brexit.
The Euro has been on a one month slide against the Japanese Yen. This indicates that Japan is a safer economy than Europe. The Euro recently recovered against the Yen, but is facing resistance. This may change if Marie Le Pen begins to slip in the polls.
![EUR/JPY Chart](https://bfgllc.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-17-EURJPY-TOS_CHARTS-1024x680.png)
There has also been as safe flight to the US Dollar over the past month.
![EUR/USD](https://bfgllc.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-17-EURUSD-TOS_CHARTS-1024x680.png)
Along with increased demand in the 10-year Treasury Note.
![US-T 10Y](https://bfgllc.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-17-US-TGovNote-IB_CHARTS-1024x535.png)
US companies doing business in France have FX exposure the Euro and potentially high impact exposure to introduction of a devalued currency. US companies may wish to insure accounts receivable against further erosion through forward contracts, futures, or options.