Societe Generale updates black swan report

Societe Generale has release their latest black swan risk report.  The risks are still the same as the post election report last November.

The key downside risks in order of probability are:

  • Political uncertainty drag (30%)
  • Sharp increase in bond yields (25%)
  • China hard landing (20%)
  • Isolationism and trade wars (15%)

The key upside risks in order of probability are:

  • More capex (10%)
  • Significant fiscal accommodation & fast track reform (5%)